North Carolina’s political landscape shifted significantly on Tuesday night as Democrats outperformed expectations in the midterms locally and across the country.
In a surprise to many, Democrats won control of the North Carolina House of Representatives after 16 years in the chamber’s minority. On the Senate side, Democrats flipped enough seats to break the Republican Supermajority and may have done enough to even win joint control of the chamber.
We forecasted some turnover in each chamber, but we did not expect a blue wave so strong that it would flip nearly 30 seats in the North Carolina General Assembly from Republican to Democrat. Yet that is exactly what happened.
The North Carolina House and Senate midterm election results will undoubtedly increase the influence of Democratic Governor Josh Stein, whose vetoes will now be practically impossible to override. House Minority Leader Robert Reives was also a big winner Tuesday night as his party will soon have control of the North Carolina House.
This week’s election results represent the largest electoral swing North Carolina has seen since 2010, when Republicans won control of both chambers. In addition to flipping the North Carolina House and breaking the Senate Republican Supermajority, Democrats also won every statewide race on the ballot, including all four judicial races for the state Supreme Court and Court of Appeals. They also currently lead in nine of the state’s 14 congressional districts.
In the 2027 Long Session, Democrats will have control of the House for the first time since 2010, ending 16 years of Republican majorities in both chambers. In January, if current seat counts hold, Governor Stein will work with a divided legislature for the first time. Next year would also mark North Carolina’s first General Assembly with the House and Senate controlled by different parties since 2004.
Both chambers will also have new leadership in 2027. Destin Hall, current Speaker of the House, will no longer serve in that role with Democrats in control of the chamber. The Senate’s current President Pro Tempore, Phil Berger, lost his bid for reelection by 22 votes in his March primary.
What drove these results and what foreshadowed them? These outcomes may reflect North Carolina’s rapidly changing demographics, the current state of the economy, Democratic voter engagement, Republican voter apathy, or some combination of all of the above. Campaign finance data and North Carolina’s current voting maps offered no hints that a massive blue wave was imminent, but economic distress signals and historic midterm election patterns did provide clues that Tuesday night’s events were plausible.
The North Carolina House
Democrats have won at least 66 of the House’s 120 seats, with five more seats where Democrats are presumptive winners, but the races are within the one percent margin for a recount. If current results hold, Democrats will enter the 2027 Long Session with 71 House seats compared to 48 seats for Republicans. Unaffiliated candidate April Montgomery won her House District 51 race and is expected to caucus with Democrats.
To borrow Speaker Hall’s term, this 72-seat block would give Democrats a “working supermajority” in the North Carolina House, which would arguably be the most unexpected outcome of the 2026 midterms. A supermajority matters less when it belongs to the same party as the governor, but it represents a significant gain for Democrats, nonetheless.
Democrats needed to flip 11 seats in the North Carolina House to end the current Republican majority. The most recent forecasts from political pundits projected that Democrats would flip between six and eight House seats. If current results hold, Democrats appear to have flipped 23. Compared with 2024, the average change in margin in 2026 was 15.8 points in Democrats’ favor.
Looking ahead to 2027, Representative Reives, the current House Minority Leader, is the clear frontrunner to serve as the next Speaker of the House, but the House Democratic Caucus will make that decision. We expect Representatives Deb Butler, Cynthia Ball, and Brandon Lofton to also hold senior leadership roles in the new House majority.
The North Carolina Senate
Republicans won 26 of the Senate’s 50 seats, though incumbent Republican Danny Britt’s win is within the one percent margin for a recount. These results leave Republicans below the 30 seats needed to override a veto and end the Senate Republican Supermajority.
The outcome of Senator Britt’s race will decide whether the Senate has a Republican simple majority or an even split between the parties. If the Senate settles at an even 25-25 split, Democratic Lieutenant Governor Rachel Hunt would cast the tie-breaking vote, effectively giving Democrats control of the Senate chamber.
Democrats needed a net gain of one seat to end the Senate Republican supermajority and a net gain of five seats to end the simple majority. If current results hold, Senate Democrats have gained four seats.
If the current 26-24 split remains, the Senate Republican Caucus will need to elect a new President Pro Tempore to lead the chamber. Prior to the midterms, four senators were competing to succeed Senator Berger as leader, but one of them, Senator Michael Lee, lost his reelection bid on Tuesday and will not return in 2027. That would have left Senators Todd Johnson, Brent Jackson, and Ralph Hise as the remaining contenders, but on Wednesday morning, Senator Jim Burgin sent a letter to his colleagues announcing his candidacy as well.
Based on Tuesday’s losses, our top prediction is that Senator Johnson will be elected to lead Senate Republicans. If Senator Britt’s recount ends in a flipped seat and a 25-25 split of the chamber, the North Carolina Senate would likely follow the precedent set by the North Carolina House in 2003 and elect co-leaders, with one leader from each party. Under that scenario, we would project Senate Minority Leader Sydney Batch to co-lead the chamber alongside the Senator elected by the Senate Republican Caucus.
Compared with 2024, the average Senate race moved 15.3 points toward Democrats.
Final tallies will depend on the outcomes of recounts, and all results are technically unofficial until certified. Even still, we can share with confidence that a Democratic majority in the House is certain, and if current results hold, Republicans will retain a narrow majority in the Senate.
Campaign Spending, Voter Turnout, and Other Bellwethers
Fundraising is often an early indicator of election outcomes, but this year’s spending totals provided no indication of the blue wave to come.
The North Carolina Democratic Party, including its judicial and legislative campaign operations, reported raising $13.6 million between July and mid-October and $20.4 million over the full election cycle. Combined with its House and Senate caucus fundraising committees, the North Carolina Republican Party reported raising about $13.6 million over the same period and $20.7 million over the cycle.
These nearly identical fundraising figures illustrate that much larger factors were at play in these midterms. Presidential approval ratings, inflation data, and early voting turnout were ultimately far better predictors of voter behavior this cycle.
Early voting participation set a record for midterm elections in North Carolina, with more than 2.7 million people voting in person by the Saturday afternoon deadline. Including mail-in ballots, 2.8 million votes were cast during the early voting period, meaning 36% of registered voters chose to vote before Election Day. The previous midterm high came in 2022, when about 2 million people voted in person during early voting.
Among early voters, 38% were registered Democrats, 35% were unaffiliated, and 26% were registered Republicans, consistent with relative percentages from prior elections.
What Comes Next
The most immediate effects of this week’s midterms will come during the final weeks of unified Republican control of the General Assembly in 2026. We expected a very active special session the week of November 17, but the election results could change that plan. Republican interest in convening before the end of the year is now higher than ever, but we are hearing that Republicans may need more time to prepare for their final 2026 session given the changes on the horizon. Our sources indicate that the November session could be replaced by a broader special session in December.
In 2027, Governor Stein will learn to navigate a divided legislative branch, as will we. Decisions about bill sponsorship and amendment strategy will look very different. Bipartisan coalition building will be more critical than ever. New leadership in both chambers means new staff, new priorities, and a new cadence to the flow of bills. House voting schedules could change under a new House Speaker, and Thursday voting sessions could return. We expect entirely new House committee chairs and possibly even some committee leadership turnover in the Senate.
House Democrats now face a rush to staff up, with a rumored 130 partisan staff positions to fill in the coming weeks. At the same time, many experienced Republican staffers will be looking for new work.
Gridlock is not new to the North Carolina General Assembly, but the parties behind it are likely to change in the new biennium. For several years, tensions between House and Senate leaders within the same party repeatedly slowed bill movement between the chambers. In 2027, we expect partisan differences to play a much larger role in the flow, or lack thereof, of bills between the House and Senate.
Political dynamics change, but our approach to nonpartisan advocacy built on substance over partisanship never will. We have spent years cultivating relationships on both sides of the aisle and are well positioned to navigate a reconstituted General Assembly. We look forward to working with new House and Senate leadership in the 2027-28 biennium.
