On June 10, 2026, Colorado State University published its updated Atlantic hurricane season forecast, reducing its earlier projections in light of a growing likelihood that a moderate to strong El Niño will develop by the peak months of August through October.
The revised forecast now calls for 11 named storms and five hurricanes, a reduction from the April prediction of 13 named storms and six hurricanes. The prediction of two major hurricanes currently remains unchanged. CSU estimates that 2026 hurricane activity will reach only about 60% of the historical average from 1991 to 2020, marking a notable departure from the past decade, during which nine of the last ten seasons were above normal or hyperactive. The probability of a major hurricane making landfall along the U.S. coastline has been placed at 24%, well below the long-term average of 43%.
This favorable adjustment to the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season forecast presents a strategic, and potentially time-limited, opportunity for commercial property owners and businesses operating in North and South Carolina. Rather than treating a more favorable forecast as an invitation to defer action, prudent operators should view this moment as a window in which to review, strengthen, and optimize their insurance programs and take stock of and document existing conditions before they change or a storm materializes.
Why a Moderated Forecast Creates Opportunity
A below-average hurricane season forecast can influence the insurance marketplace in several practical ways. When projected risk decreases, insurers may be more willing to write or renew policies, offer broader terms, or price coverage more competitively. Supplemental coverage that is difficult or expensive to obtain during an active season, or after a named storm has formed, may be more accessible now. In many cases, insurers impose binding restrictions as soon as a tropical disturbance is identified, meaning that by the time a storm is in the forecast cone, it is too late to secure additional protection.
For businesses in the Carolinas, which sit squarely in the path of Atlantic hurricanes and tropical storms, the practical takeaway is straightforward. The time to act on any insurance needs is before the market tightens, not after. A moderated forecast does not eliminate risk or ensure a looser market, but it can create more favorable conditions for obtaining the coverage a business needs.
Key Insurance Actions for Commercial Property Owners
The following steps represent practical, high-priority actions that commercial property owners and business operators in North and South Carolina should consider taking now.
Review Current Policies for Coverage Gaps
Commercial property insurance policies vary widely in what they cover. Many standard policies exclude or limit coverage for flood and wind damage, requiring separate policies to address those risks. Business interruption and extra expense coverage, which compensates for lost income and added operating costs when a covered event forces a business to close or relocate, is critical but often misunderstood or underinsured. It is also frequently subject to time limits, tied either to how long repairs should reasonably take or to a fixed outer cap, such as 12 or 18 months, that cannot be exceeded. Property owners should carefully review their policies to confirm that wind, flood, and business interruption and extra expense perils are adequately addressed and that no material gaps exist. For businesses that hold inventory, particularly aged stock, confirming that coverage is in place to replace it is critical. Business personal property coverage under a commercial property policy can cover inventory, but standard policies may not adequately account for the appreciating value of aging stock.
Confirm That Coverage Limits Reflect Current Replacement Costs
Construction costs, material prices, and labor rates have increased substantially in recent years. A policy that was adequate in its coverage limits two or three years ago may now leave a property significantly underinsured. Commercial property owners should obtain current replacement cost estimates for their buildings, equipment, and other insured assets and compare those figures against their policy limits. Underinsurance can result in devastating out-of-pocket losses following a major storm and may also trigger coinsurance penalties that further reduce claim payouts.
Understand Your Deductibles, Especially Hurricane and Named-Storm Deductibles
Many commercial property policies in coastal states include named-storm, wind, and hail coverage with hurricane or named-storm deductibles calculated as a percentage of the insured value rather than as a flat dollar amount. A 5% hurricane deductible on a property insured for $10 million, for example, means the policyholder bears the first $500,000 of any hurricane-related loss. These deductibles can come as a costly surprise to property owners who have not reviewed them carefully. Now is the time to understand what deductibles apply, how they are triggered, and whether alternative structures, such as a buydown to a lower percentage or a flat deductible, are available. If nothing else, working through how that deductible would be funded if needed is a worthy conversation before the need arises.
Engage with Your Broker or Insurer About Supplemental Coverage
A moderated hurricane forecast may make it easier to obtain supplemental or excess coverage. Commercial property owners should discuss with their brokers whether additional coverage options, such as excess flood insurance, windstorm coverage above standard policy limits, or contingent business interruption coverage that addresses supply chain disruptions, are appropriate for their risk profile. The Carolinas are subject not only to hurricane-force winds but also to significant inland flooding, storm surge, and tornadoes spawned by tropical systems, all of which may require distinct coverage.
Update Documentation of Assets and Inventory
In the event of a loss, the claims process depends heavily on the policyholder’s ability to demonstrate what was damaged or destroyed and its value. Commercial property owners should ensure that their asset inventories, equipment schedules, and building documentation are current and stored somewhere that will survive a storm, such as a secure cloud-based system. Pre-loss property photographs, video walkthroughs, receipts, and appraisals all serve as critical evidence during a claim and can materially accelerate recovery. Some companies offer services specifically designed to document pre-loss property conditions.
A Forecast Is Not a Guarantee
No seasonal forecast, however well-informed, is a guarantee of outcomes. As CSU senior research scientist Phil Klotzbach noted, even in a below-average season, there will likely be “little pockets in certain areas where conditions are conducive for a storm.” El Niño’s suppressive effect on hurricane development is a statistical tendency, not a certainty, and the Carolinas remain vulnerable to any single storm that forms and tracks toward the coast.
History offers ample evidence that a quiet season overall can still produce catastrophic individual events. A single major hurricane making landfall in the Carolinas, as Hurricane Hugo did in 1989 or Hurricane Florence did in 2018, can cause billions of dollars in commercial property losses regardless of how many or how few other storms form that year. The revised CSU forecast places the probability of major hurricane landfall on the U.S. coast at 24%, which, while below the historical average, is far from negligible. Complacency remains one of the greatest risks facing commercial property owners in hurricane-prone regions.
Act Now While Conditions Are Favorable
The adjusted 2026 Atlantic hurricane season forecast should be understood not as a signal to relax, but as an opportunity to act. Commercial property owners and businesses in North and South Carolina have a window in which insurance markets may be more accommodating, coverage options may be more broadly available, and there is still time to address gaps before the peak of the season arrives in August. That window will not remain open indefinitely.
The prudent course is clear. Engage your broker, review your policies, update your valuations, and confirm that your business is positioned to withstand not just the season that is forecast, but the storm that actually arrives.
Ward and Smith’s Insurance Coverage and Recovery attorneys help commercial policyholders navigate the complexities of insurance programs before and after a loss. From policy review and coverage analysis to claim preparation and dispute resolution, the group works with businesses across the Carolinas to ensure they are positioned to recover when a storm arrives. For additional guidance, explore our related resources: After the Storm: A Policyholder’s Step-by-Step Guide to Maximizing Your Commercial Property Insurance Claim, NFIP Flood Insurance Policy Pitfalls: What South Carolina Policyholders Should Know Before Disaster Strikes, and Hurricane Preparedness: Essential Legal Topics for North Carolina Business Owners.
